Reality of the Surge Options

[Hellfighter]

My view;
A smartly run military campaign.
.... however McCain and other neocons are perhaps patting 'themselves' too early for supporting it;
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23382421

Firstly - the current 'Surge' was supposed to have ended six months ago.
The Surge's main- MAIN- purpose was not directly about killing off al quaeda, but to get the Iraqi government to finally act as one solid front - that has not succeeded -> their may be improvements in that goal, but it hasn't been accomplished-still.

Secondly the Surge was supposed to mean a reduction in troop strength to reduce the stress on the soldiers involved in excessive rotations. The neo-cons tend to assume soldiers are wind-up toys with energizer batteries in them rather than dedicated hman beings. Is it no wonder thre are so many soldiers returning from Iraq feeling disenfranchised by society and 'preferring' to live out of the norms of society once they get back and as we see in shameful large numbers in homeless conditions ['support the troops' was the hollow neocon mantra for the longest while. Now they're surprised why their flag-waving antics no longer work].
Troop numbers in Iraq are still very high.
Of course the argument that tactically a troop withdrawal would lead to a disaster. But get real. The Surge Generals know all is not hunky-dory just because territory is gained and all seems quiet for now regarding the Sunnis in the north and south, and the still potent Shiite militias held-back by a ceasefire agreement. Iran is quite. People are waiting in the wings. We tend in the West to view progress from our perspective -enemy quiet= enemy defeated. They're being 'clever' for lack of a better word. You can bet they are using this quiet time to plan their own surge when the time is right - US troops whether McCain or a Dem is in charge WILL be reduced when thins seem quiet enough -and that's when the enem/enemies will strike and launch their civil war.
There's no doubt also that al quaeda's 'ground force's are on the run - but their suicide bombers can still lurk anywhere in Iraq. All they need to do / and are doing is to keep maintaining 2 or 3 horrid suicide attacks a month to keep things destabilized there.
Note how the media over here now rarely mentions the suicide attacks in Iraq. They're in'Surge is working' mode. Just like they ignored Afghanistan has been in worse shape.

Finally why did the Surge 'work'. 'Awakening Alliance'- the Sunni private armies that are contesting al quaeda. The Surge is only progressing in terms of territory due to the Awakening Alliance 'watching the six' of the the Surge's tail. The amount of US troops freed up by this comfort in not having to leave considerable troops back to solidify gained ground is an impressive reason for the successes - not to mention al Sadr's militias being quiet in Baghdad -temporarily. Then another reason things are calmed - the ethnic cleansing of neighbourhoods by gangs of demons succeeded to the point where there were no more 'undesirables' left to kill - so it appeared they had been stopped when in fact they had themselves no reason to continue their mayhem.
So that are measuring success in Iraq from a tunnel-minded vision need to look at the bigger picture, and the reality in total the mainstream media are failing to let you know about - and in fact are misleading you about. It's not too difficult to find out how everything is currently balanced on the edge of a blade over there.

[Hellfighter]

I agree with you about the actuality of a political situation stabilizing but let's be real about what is actually feasible in Iraq. It's been 5 years in Iraq so far and the US generals will more than likely all tell you nothing seems for sire regarding the Iraqi government - there are divisive major factions waiting in the wings all over the place waiting for their opportunity to pick any gains apart. The whole situation can come apart at the seams very quickly... that is the reality.

My point regarding the Surge is Bush again being deceitful.... he was given the means to do the Surge in the first place upon/within the confines of certain conditions -and a timeframe inn which he would assesss benchmarks met and cutback on troop deployments.

The surge failed regarding those benchmarks and goals - militarily its successful, but overall what does it mean if al quaeda can still kill scores of people a week with their covert suicide bomber elements- and what does it mean if the Awakening Alliance is showing signs of fracturing, and the shiite militias are still unarmed and waiting to go to battle stations.

My point remains the same forthe past several years..... its all about the Iraqi army coming into its own as a potent fighting force. Without that the coalition are going to play 'police' force for a hundred years there as Sen.McCain professed. That's not fair to the US troops doing 3 or 4 tours under tense combat situations and then not being cared for regarding serious mental fatigue afflictions. And then there's the cost factor, what miracles can be performed in cleaning up gang-ravaged neighbourhoods and getting the poorest neighbourhoods/rural areas a kickstart in meaningful developement over here with a trillion bucks.


Robert -can we get the 'edit posts' enabled please lol- I'm making laughable typos that need fixing !



This post has been edited by Hellfighter: 02/29/08 1:41pm

[Blitz]

My point regarding the Surge is Bush again being deceitful.... he was given the means to do the Surge in the first place upon/within the confines of certain conditions -and a timeframe inn which he would assesss benchmarks met and cutback on troop deployments.

Robert -can we get the 'edit posts' enabled please lol- I'm making laughable typos that need fixing !

A politican being deciteful.... say it's not so, I thought that was the defenition of politican?

IMO we blew the first 3 years as far as getting the poliical situation started on the right path, and the idea of creating green zones and letting other areas go to hell was a mistake, it did not make any friends with the people we left to suffer in the violent areas.

I just think we are finally getting some traction and the progress in the last year has been more than the previous 3 combined. I don't see how cutting out now achieves anything? You are correct the enemy is waiting back. They know we have elections coming and are hoping we leave so they can take over.
If we split now the last 5 years were for nothing in the long run.

The terrorists are working on a 30 year plan so to speak, and we want instant gratifiation and 1 year turn arounds.
If we had a president with vision he would have been working on a 30 year plan bringing political, economic, and military pressure to all the terrorists, We would have been rapidly pursung energy independance 5 years ago, changing trade reqirements, supporting opposition parties in countries abroad, and in general makng it miserable for counries that support terrorism.
We were supposed to be at war with radical islam, but in reality we as a country have lost focus on the big picture. The enemy has not, they want an entire islamic world controlled under shira law

We at least are headed in a constant diretion, the tribal chiefs are starting to come around, the council is moving forward and if they can get the oil money dispursed evenly so that every religious region has a win i think in a couple more years (3 to 5) it will be a major sucess.

We are sill a LONG ways away, but I feel that because we blew the first couple years we are really only about a year and a half in using an effective stragety.

I would like to at least here somone layout the outcome and long term analysis if we left and compare that against sticking it out to the finish. We all know the reason why to leave, everyone just leaves out the reality of what would happen if we did and would it make the world better?

Timetables and goals are great, and they provide a measuring stick, but because we miss them should that mean we quit?

Druid, the edit function would be great, my keyboard is beat and although my spelling is ok I can't even type "the" without proof reading.